Stop Climate Chaos calls for action on agricultural emissions that does not rely on faulty interpretation of science.

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Stop Climate Chaos calls for action on agricultural emissions that does not rely on faulty interpretation of science.

Programme for Government will have to include faster reductions in methane and nitrous oxide

June 5 2020, 06:30am

[Note: a revision was made to this press release on June 9th 2020 to clarify the reference to 'faulty science', which should have read 'faulty representation of science'.]

As government formation talks reach a critical phase, the question of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions is the subject of intense scrutiny. Today, World Environment Day, the Stop Climate Chaos Coalition [1] has published a briefing called Agricultural emissions in Irish climate change mitigation policy: Science and Solutions [2] intended to inform public and political debate on the role of agriculture in Ireland's climate action plans.

Introducing the briefing, Sadhbh O Neill, Policy Advisor with the Stop Climate Chaos Coalition commented:

“If Ireland is going to reduce our total emissions by at least 7% a year, as called for by the UN Emissions Gap report, then agricultural emissions can't keep rising as they have for the last decade. We need to see reductions in methane and nitrous oxide gases. Nothing else counts as real mitigation."


“While nobody expects farming to cut emissions as fast as other sectors, agricultural emissions will need to fall from about 20 million tonnes a year to around 12 to 15 million tonnes. That’s additional savings of 4-6 MtCO2e compared to current plans [3]. Even then all of the rest of the economy and society together will have to cut emissions from 40 million tonnes to between 15 and 18 million tonnes, so this is a very good deal for agriculture. It is vital that the government formation negotiations are not misinformed by faulty science getting coverage due to its supposed novelty.”

In a recent opinion poll conducted by Friends of the Earth, 92% of the respondents stated that the government should be guided by science and expert advice on climate action as they have been on Covid-19.
“Climate policy should be guided by IPCC science and advice from an independent climate change advisory body. We can’t just rely on misinterpretations of new science if we don’t like the inconvenient truth that emissions must come down. That is just another form of denial.”, continued Ms O’Neill.

Recent scientific publications [4] have proposed a new way of accounting for methane that captures its warming impact more accurately. Methane for instance is 28 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, but it lasts for just 12 years in the atmosphere. However according to Ms. O'Neill:

"It is mistaken to suggest that the shorter life cycle of methane in the atmosphere, by comparison with carbon dioxide, implies that control of its emissions is somehow less important. Even though an emission of one tonne of methane in 2018 will have long since been removed from the atmosphere by 2118, it will still have been responsible for 34 times [5] more heat trapping than the tonne of carbon dioxide emitted at the same time."

The research of the Oxford Martin research group has been misrepresented by some sectoral interests who seek to downplay the role of methane in climate mitigation strategies. The GWP* method seeks to link emissions more accurately to warming. But it does not mean that methane emissions do not need to be substantially reduced. Media reports are also suggesting that some political parties are seeking special exemptions for agriculture on the basis that soils, hedgerows and marine kelp forests can absorb emissions from livestock. Land use in Ireland is a net emitter under IPCC methodology. In other words, even when carbon sequestration is taken into account, we are still emitting more greenhouse gases from land-use and land-use change than we are absorbing. Increasing sequestration by rewetting bogs, afforestation (including natural regeneration) and improving soil carbon are slow, highly uncertain methods for climate action through land use management.

According to Dr. Elaine McGoff, Natural Environment Officer with An Taisce, a member of the Stop Climate Chaos Coalition:

"Such measures can be highly beneficial for biodiversity and soil health if planned appropriately, but they are of limited benefit to near-term climate mitigation. If the additional carbon dioxide removed (sequestered) from the atmosphere is to be measured with required accuracy, it requires costly monitoring, measuring and verification." 

"Prioritising retention of existing carbon stocks by ending all peat extraction as fast as possible, ending drainage and restoring wetlands, limiting forest harvesting, and changing agricultural practices on organic soils are faster, more certain land-use policies for immediate climate action." 

"There is no scientifically verifiable method of measuring the carbon stored in hedgerows, kelp and soils yet. And even if there were, this approach is not a reliable or permanent solution to livestock emissions."

Just over a year ago the Dáil declared a climate and biodiversity emergency. Now is the time to act on that, by putting a new approach to agricultural emissions at the heart of any Programme for Government. Ireland will not be able to achieve our climate obligations if rising emissions from the agriculture sector are not meaningfully addressed. Commitments made in current negotiations will be crucial in determining the pathway Ireland will take over the coming decade if we are serious about meeting our climate obligations.

According to Ms O Neill:

"We are not proposing a particular target for agricultural methane. But there are international precedents Ireland could usefully follow in this regard. The most important intervention that can be made is a commitment to no further increases in methane and nitrogen, steady declines in methane emissions and a cap on nitrogen use which in turn could drive further methane reductions."
"The EPA reported just yesterday that Ireland is continuing to breach EU directives on ammonia (NH3) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions due to further agricultural expansion. Sooner or later, the agricultural model in Ireland will have to change course towards a more diversified, food secure and biodiversity-friendly model. Agricultural pollution to air, water and soil is getting worse under FoodWise 2025 and the next agri-food strategy must turn this situation around."

Notes

[1] Stop Climate Chaos is the civil society coalition that has campaigned since 2007 for Ireland to do its fair share to tackle the causes and consequences of climate change. It launched the One Future campaign just before the General Election.

[2] The new Stop Climate Chaos briefing, Agricultural emissions in Irish climate change mitigation policy: Science and Solutions is online here: https://www.stopclimatechaos.ie/assets/files/pdf/agricultural_emissions_science_and_solutions.pdf

[3] Achieving the economy-wide target of reducing emissions by at least 7% a year, as called for by the UN Emissions Gapreport, means halving Ireland’s annual emissions by 2030, from 60 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) a year to 30 million tonnes. Agricultural emissions are currently a third of the total at 20 MtCO2e a year, mostly in the form of methane (CH4) and Nitrous Oxide (N20) from livestock. The outgoing Government’s Climate Action Plan only envisaged a drop of 1 or 2 million tonnes a year by 2030. That would mean agriculture using 18 million tonnes of a totala nnual carbon budget of 30 million tonnes in 2030 with only 12 million tonne left for the all other sectors of the economy and all other activities of society.  

[4] Allen, M.R., Shine, K.P., Fuglestvedt, J.S. et al. A solution to the misrepresentations of CO2-equivalent emissions of short-lived climate pollutants under ambitious mitigation. NPJ Clim Atmos Sci 1, 16 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0026-8  

[5] The Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 34 in this case takes other feedbacks into account.